Subsidized intellectuals

I am part Nigerian, so I'm not indifferent to the events that happen in my country. This is why I've been following the social unrest that has resulted from the petroleum subsidy removal with a keen eye.  

Quick recap.
 Nigeria, Africa's first oil producer and second largest economy has been providing oil to its citizens at a cheaper price than it should be selling on the market. This has been accepted by the citizenry as one of the advantages of being an oil producing country. Long story short, the government removed the subsidy as a 'new years gift'. Citizens got really mad, labor unions joined in and it has brought the country to a standstill. Negotiations are on their way and based on what I'm hearing the government will budge, but not too much. 

A good explanation of government's rationale is provided by Lamido Sanusi, current central bank governor( on Reuters or bbc). And a good take on why people are protesting can be found on bbc, 'have your say' I think they archive their shows. 

This is my problem. I've listened to a wide variety of opinions on this matter, a lot of the critics' arguments made sense and were very convincing. But there's always something missing from these great intelligent, smart, intellectual people's  opinions. 

What the hell would you do?

In more polished English: in matters of governance, I believe that it is useful to correctly identify the root problem and provide constructive criticism. But it is even better to provide an alternative that might address the problem at hand. 

Today for the first time, after probably reading my 25th article on this issue, I came across a novelty. A person that followed up his criticism with an proposal for a better way forward. 

Yeshir Ben Yahmed (editor in chief) of Jeune Afrique in his column "Ce que je crois" I've come to respect his analysis and opinions, even though I don't always agree with him. He did a good job breaking down the problem, and he actually provided his alternative. 

Before getting there, I want to point out that in my opinion, the sudden way in which the government removed the subsidy without any warning was not 'stupid' or 'not well thought out' as some have said.  It was probably a pre-meditated move. 

It made me think of  'shock-doctrine' an idea really made popular by Jeffrey Sachs whereby when the government knows it is about to implement a really unpopular policy, it should go about it very quickly and even as a surprise so as to shock people. Sort of how people remove band aids brutally as opposed to doing it meticulously to just get the pain out of the way in one stroke. Jeffrey Sachs pioneered this idea with his work rehabilitating the Chilean, and Polish economy by advising their governments to do just that. In strictly statistical terms his work in those two countries was deemed as a success albeit a very painful one. (not so much in Russia)

So yeah, the Nigerian government is not 'stupid' to just spring that on Nigerians, I think it was on purpose. Especially when you consider that Goodluck Jonathan's economic has a Goldman Sachs alum and a World Bank alum. Smells  like shock doctrine to me. I haven't looked at empirical evidence to see if shock therapy in governance actually works or not, but in this case in Nigeria, it did not. Resoundingly so. 

Anyway, that was a digression. Our BBY of jeune Afrique says that he would have removed the subsidy gradually over a ten year period of time to give the people of Nigeria time to adjust. 

Thank you BBY, at least you put yourself out there with a solution instead of safely hating from the sidelines. 

I disagree with him though. The subsidy is estimated to cost Nigeria $8 billion a year. So basically you would still be wasting money until the subsidy was removed all for the sake of appeasing your citizenry. And the purpose of removing the subsidy is to cut waste. 

I think the government of Nigeria should have instead run a sensibilization campaign on tv and on radio warning and educating its citizens about the subsidy removal and why it was necessary, it's citizens would have been better prepared to then face it. Some would counteract that with its high level of illiteracy, such a prescription would not work in a country like Nigeria. Especially given that we're dealing with economics here a subject too 'complicated' for the average Nigerian. I REJECT such thinking, low levels of literacy does not mean lack of logic and inability to think rationally. 


Bottom line, African government need to spend more time communicating with its people, if they do, they will have an attentive and more patient ear.

I agree with Mark Penn when he says "Voters are not stupid".